Fig. 1

Example of grid of true underlying prevalences of undiagnosed HIV infection. The values in the individual squares represent the starting value (t = 0) of prevalences of undiagnosed HIV infection (UP, (t)) for each zone. Each iteration of a given data simulation setting starts with a new formulation of this grid and this is a representative sample of a grid for the base case with low correlation and 20% hotspots on average (although this single example from the base case has 30% hotspots). All strategies start with the same grid in any given iteration