Fig. 2

Measles susceptibility in 2050 under different routine coverage levels. Cumulative fraction of susceptible individuals by age in 2050 in the population, as estimated by assuming coverage levels of baseline routine country-specific vaccination activities between 60 and 100%. The grey line represents the estimated cumulative fraction of susceptible individuals by age in 2050, as estimated in the absence of additional vaccination programmes. Bars refer to the total fractions of susceptible individuals in the population in 2050 in different coverage scenarios, and vertical black lines represent their 95% credible intervals. The dashed grey line represents the 7.5% threshold required for elimination