Fig. 3

Seasonality. Plots show estimated mean of treatment effect (top) and its standard error (bottom) without interaction between season and treatment (left) and with an interaction (right). The seasonal effect varies between 0 and 10. Error bars indicate \(1.96 \times\) Monte Carlo error. The black error bars indicates the scenario under no seasonal effect. Dark blue, purple and teal lines indicate that the proportion of patients recruited in winter are 0.1, 0.2 and 0.5, respectively. Results are based on 10,000 simulations