Fig. 1

Strategic diagram of analysis strategy. The symbol “1” indicates the following: change in mean exposure to takeaways (by 2031) is calculated by comparing the difference in outlet exposure from a business-as-usual model (see Liu et al. 2024) to an intervention that reduces outlet growth between by 50%. The symbol “2” indicates the following: for each additional takeaway an individual is exposed to, mean BMI increases by 0.0241 kg/m2 (see Burgoine et al. 2024). The symbol “3” indicates the following: For PRIMEtime modelling, the oldest age of a cohort member would be aged 64 years old at baseline (2018) and would be 86 years old by 2040. Some adults will be lost to follow-up, for example due to premature mortality