Table 5 Change in incident cases of disease/100,000 adult population (2018 to 2040), in six specified local authorities

Males

 Metabolic

Type II diabetes

 − 1013 (− 1285, − 753)

 − 995 (− 1262, − 740)

 − 964 (− 1565, − 870)

 − 803 (− 1023, − 594)

 − 804 (− 1018, − 600)

 − 1206 (− 1565, − 870)

Cardiovascular disease

 Ischaemic heart disease

 − 153 (− 192, − 117)

 − 105 (− 131, − 80.6)

 − 124 (− 157, − 94.1)

 − 118 (− 149, − 90.0)

 − 91.1 (− 114, − 70.3)

 − 99.2 (− 125, − 75.3)

 Hypertensive heart disease

 − 8.16 (− 13.5, − 3.22)

 − 8.32 (− 13.6, − 3.45)

 − 6.89 (− 11.9, − 2.13)

 − 7.91 (− 13.1, − 3.09)

 − 8.42 (− 13.7, − 3.59)

 − 6.73 (− 11.9, − 2.03)

 Stroke

 − 9.32 (− 12.5, − 6.41)

 − 15.9 (− 21.1, − 11.0)

 − 21.1 (− 28.3, − 14.5)

 − 17.3 (− 23.3, − 11.9)

 − 15.2 (− 20.1, − 10.5)

 − 18.9 (− 25.3, − 12.9)

 Atrial fibrillation and flutter

 − 72.5 (− 102, − 47.8)

 − 61.7 (− 86.6, − 40.7)

 − 60.6 (− 85.5, − 39.8)

 − 59.7 (− 83.8, − 39.4)

 − 57.3 (− 80.3, − 4.17) −

− 62 (− 87.7 − 40.6)

Cancer

 Colon and rectum cancer

 Oesophageal

 − 1.05 (− 1.57, − 0.52)

 − 0.03 (− 0.05, − 0.03)

 − 1.58 (− 2.77, − 0.79)

 − 3.16 (− 4.35, − 1.98)

 − 1.59 (− 2.41, − 0.83)

 − 3.28 (− 4.54, − 2.24)

 − 1.76 (− 2.64, − 0.93)

 − 2.94 (− 4.04, − 2.02)

 − 1.22 (− 1.79, − 0.69)

 − 3.58 (− 5.00, − 2.44)

 − 0.91. (− 1.31, − 0.50)

 < 0.01 (0.01, 0.01)

Respiratory

 Asthma

 − 196 (− 293, − 107)

 − 187 (− 283, − 101)

 − 192 (− 288, − 105)

 − 169 (− 252, − 93.4)

 − 182 (− 278, − 97.2)

 − 238 (− 366, − 125)

Musculo-skeletal

 Low back pain

 − 272 (− 532, − 21.0)

 − 278 (− 556, − 5.03)

 − 332 (− 650, − 29.0)

 − 277 (− 534, − 31.6)

 − 332 (− 676, 1.58)

 − 249 (− 534, 22.2)

 Hip osteoarthritis

Knee osteoarthritis

0.52 (0.52, 0.79)

2.62 (2.10, 2.62)

0.40 (0.40, − 0.40)

1.98 (1.58, 2.37)

0.6 (0.47, 0.73)

2.74 (2.20, 3.34)

0.55 (0.41, 0.62)

2.41 (1.92, 2.96)

0.15 (0.15, 0.22)

0.97 (0.75, 1.19)

0.30 (0.20, − 0.81)

1.21 (0.91, 1.51)

Females

 Metabolic

 Type II diabetes

 − 837 (− 1048, − 634)

 − 987 (− 1228, − 754)

 − 725 (− 911, − 546)

 − 677 (− 847, − 513)

 − 801 (− 997, − 612)

 − 879 (− 1116, − 648)

Cardiovascular disease

 Ischaemic heart disease

 − 49.8 (− 62.3, − 38.3)

 − 39.2 (− 48.9, − 30.2)

 − 41.8 (− 52.7, − 31.8)

 − 41.1 (− 51.7, − 31.4)

 − 34.4 (− 42.8, − 26.6)

 − 31.4 (− 39.7, − 23.9)

 Hypertensive heart disease

 − 5.47 (− 8.72, − 2.38)

 − 5.92 (− 9.18, − 2.77)

 − 4.68 (− 7.52, − 1.86)

 − 5.37 (− 8.40, − 2.34)

 − 6.18 (− 9.73, − 2.91)

 − 4.40 (− 7.40, − 1.59)

 Stroke

 − 19.0 (− 25.6, − 13.5)

 − 15.2 (− 20.4, − 10.8)

 − 20.1 (− 27.2, − 13.9)

 − 16.7 (− 22.5, − 11.6)

 − 15.3 (− 20.4, − 10.9)

 − 15.2 (− 20.7, − 10.5)

 Atrial fibrillation and flutter

 − 32.7 (− 45.9, − 21.6)

 − 30.9 (− 43.3, − 20.5)

 − 30.9 (− 43.3, − 20.5)

 − 27.2 (− 38.1, − 18.0)

 − 31.8 (− 44.6, − 21.1)

 − 24.1 (− 34.1, − 15.8)

Cancer

 Colon and rectum cancer

 Oesophageal

 Breast cancer

 − 1.02 (− 1.50, − 0.57)

 < 0.01 (0.01, 0.01)

 − 6.43 (− 8.63, − 4.49)

 − 0.78 (− 1.56, − 0.39)

 − 0.78 (− 0.78, − 0.39)

 − 6.65 (− 8.99, − 4.69)

 − 0.95 (− 1.40, − 0.53)

 < 0.01 (0.01, 0.01)

 − 6.56 (− 8.82, − 4.58)

 − 0.96 (− 1.45, − 0.55)

 − 0.48 (− 0.69, − 0.34)

 − 6.61 (− 8.88, − 4.61)

 − 1.14 (− 1.71, − 0.64)

 < 0.01 (0.01, 0.01)

 − 6.68 (− 8.95, − 4.69)

 − 0.67 (− 1.03, − 0.37)

 < 0.01 (0.01, 0.01)

 − 6.28 (− 8.43, − 4.40)

Respiratory

 Asthma

 − 402 (− 603, − 220)

 − 327 (− 490, − 179)

 − 361 (− 542, − 199)

 − 325 (− 485, − 180)

 − 318 (− 483, − 171)

 − 444 (− 681, − 235)

Musculo-skeletal

 Low back pain

 − 326 (− 644, 16.5)

 − 312 (− 613, 16.7)

 − 325 (− 638, − 23.8)

 − 319 (− 618, 31.2)

 − 316 (− 613, 1.51)

 − 318 (− 666, 11.3)

 Hip osteoarthritis

 Knee osteoarthritis

0.26 (0.26, 0.26)

1.06 (0.79, 1.32)

004 (0.03, 0.05)

0.78 (0.78, 1.17)

0.22 (0.14, 0.22)

1.08 (0.86, 1.37)

0.14 (0.14, 0.21)

0.96 (0.76, 1.17)

0.14 (0.14, 0.21)

0.78 (0.78, 1.17)

0.09 (0.09, 0.09)

0.47 (0.37, 0.66)