Fig. 4

ROC curves for predicting conversion and non-remission using total neurocognitive resilience (NCR) scores. A Prediction of conversion. This panel presents a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve that evaluates the ability of total NCR scores to predict conversion to psychosis among CHR individuals. The curve plots the true-positive rate (sensitivity) on the y-axis against the false-positive rate (100% − Specificity) on the x-axis. The area under the curve (AUC) is 0.621, with a 95% confidence interval (CI) of (0.561–0.681) and a p-value of 0.0001, indicating that the total NCR scores have a statistically significant but modest ability to predict conversion. Adjacent to the curve is a table that lists various cutoff values for total NCR scores, along with their corresponding sensitivity and specificity percentages. For example, a cutoff value of < − 2.500 has a sensitivity of 60.38% and a specificity of 61.75% (highlighted in the table), meaning that when the total NCR score is below this value, the test correctly identifies 60.38% of the individuals who will convert to psychosis and correctly classifies 61.75% of those who will not convert. B Prediction of non-remission. The ROC curve assesses the predictive power of total NCR scores for non-remission in CHR individuals. The AUC for this curve is 0.826, with a 95% CI of (0.790–0.861) and a p-value < 0.0001, suggesting a relatively strong and statistically significant ability of total NCR scores to predict non-remission. The accompanying table provides different cutoff values for total NCR scores and their associated sensitivity and specificity values. For instance, a cutoff of < − 1.500 has a sensitivity of 81.95% and a specificity of 70.72% (highlighted), indicating that a total NCR score below this value correctly identifies 81.95% of the individuals who will not achieve remission and correctly classifies 70.72% of those who will achieve remission. Note: NCR (neurocognitive resilience) is defined as follows: NCR (NCR = 0): the adjusted cognitive variable is within one standard deviation of the mean of the HC group. NCR + (NCR = 1): the adjusted cognitive variable is greater than one standard deviation above the mean of the HC group. NCR − (NCR = − 1): the adjusted cognitive variable is less than one standard deviation below the mean of the HC group. Abbreviations: BACS, Brief Assessment of Cognition in Schizophrenia symbol coding; BVMT-R, Brief Visuospatial Memory Test–Revised; CPT-IP, Continuous Performance Test–Identical Pairs; HVLT-R, Hopkins Verbal Learning Test–Revised; NAB, Neuropsychological Assessment Battery mazes; WMS-3, Wechsler Memory Scale–Third Edition spatial span